We see three reasons for merchants to consider BNPL payments. First, BNPL can increase incremental sales, especially in impulse-purchase product categories. Next, they offer increased customer touchpoints and upselling opportunities.
Finally, BNPL payments offer merchants improved targeting opportunities for Gen Z and millennial audiences.
We see several developments on the horizon for BNPL. First, we expect increased competition for users as BNPL providers battle to capture market growth, fueled by low user loyalty to any given provider and the entry of traditional banks in BNPL. We also expect growth in in-store use cases as providers become increasingly omnichannel and BNPL providers market directly to consumers. We anticipate BNPL increasingly will be presented as a preferred payment method for online purchases. And we expect added scrutiny from regulators seeking to protect consumers, especially for longer loans with interest claw-back on missed payments; a recent study by The Ascent showed that 31% of users made a late BNPL payment and incurred fees as a result.
Gen Zers and millennials increasingly are willing to pay with alternative forms of payment beyond BNPL. Cryptocurrency and the increasing usage of person-to-person (P2P) payments and mobile wallets are far more popular with younger people than with older generations.
Cryptocurrency has been experiencing explosive, albeit volatile, growth in recent years, and has gained considerable traction with established institutions. According to the May 2021 Cryptocurrency Payments Report, 48% of Gen Zers and millennials have owned or currently own cryptocurrency. Consequently, a growing contingent of networks, big tech, and e-commerce merchants is encouraging cryptocurrency as a form of payment.
Cryptocurrency payments bring opportunity but also uncertainty. Accepting cryptocurrency at checkout could allow merchants to capitalize on emerging trends, offering quick transactions, lower fees, strengthened security, and a broad market, without needing to convert currency or prices based on the sale’s location. But there are some unknowns. Merchants might suffer less direct fraud, but buyers could face more. There is also the question of whether crypto can facilitate cross-border trade over the long term. It might be too early to tell whether accepting crypto drives new sales and customers for business or merely represents an alternative form of payment. It is also difficult for merchants to manage returns and refunds of crypto purchases because blockchain transactions are irreversible. And volatility remains of one of the biggest issues faced by buyers and sellers.
Person-to-person payments and mobile wallets are also rapidly gaining traction. Currently, there are five major P2P players in the US, and $1.152 trillion is expected to transact annually via mobile P2P apps by the end of 2023, according to eMarketer. By the end of 2025, 62% of Gen Z smartphone users in the US are expected to transact via P2P payment apps.
Merchants have become increasingly amenable to P2P as a form of payment. In the US, merchant apps have strong adoption thanks to the better shopping experience and personalized communications they allow. But that may be changing as delivery aggregators expand their capabilities, new functionality emerges from third-party apps, social platforms move into payments with social shopping, and select companies develop super-apps to reposition themselves in the center of the customer’s life.
Super-apps, popular in emerging markets, are becoming more prevalent around the globe and are positioned for growth with millennials. In the US, merchant apps typically have greater usage than third-party super-apps in merchants’ point-of-sale transactions. So, whether a one-stop app for lifestyle needs catches on in the US (vs., say, China) remains to be seen.
Delivery aggregators that shot to popularity during the pandemic are expanding their capabilities significantly in the eyes of consumers. This bears watching as players reposition themselves to be in the center of customers’ lives. Payments are the critical component in their effort to reposition and enable activities from end-to-end in the shopping experience.
Social commerce adoption in the US is limited today, but could gain more traction as “social literate” millennials and Gen Zers acquire more wealth. We are seeing more social media platforms moving into payments in an effort to keep visitors on their sites.
Merchants should offer the most relevant forms of payment to attract the next generation of buyers. An April study by PPRO showed that 44% of customers overall — 51% of millennials and 48% of Gen Zers — will abandon a purchase if their favorite payment method isn’t available.
While P2P payments for larger merchants is still nascent, there is potential for these payment methods to become more prevalent.
The adoption of cryptocurrency as a payment method is minimal today, but this is an area that should be monitored for potential growth and more widespread use going forward.
Merchants should be sure they have a Gen Z and millennials payments strategy in each of their markets globally and each channel to know which forms of payment to accept everywhere they operate. They also need to know what partnerships to set up to ensure they have control over customer relationships. And they must understand shoppers’ preferences — and the tactics necessary to drive those preferences — for each of their segments.