The global aviation maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) market has fully recovered from the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, reaching over $114 billion in 2024, an increase of 7.2% above the 2019 pre-COVID peak. We now expect the MRO industry to grow by an annual rate of 2.7% through 2035, to $156 billion.

This increase in MRO spend is attributable to newer aircraft experiencing unforeseen durability and reliability issues, inflation in labor and material costs, and an MRO “super cycle” —  a combination of increased aircraft utilization and an aging fleet that needs higher maintenance to stay operational.

Top MRO disruptors — material and labor shortages, rising costs

When asked what they expect to be the top disruptors for the industry over the next five years, MRO industry professionals responding to our 2025 survey cited material shortages — a new category introduced this year — as their top concern (Exhibit 1). For the fourth year in a row, cost management and labor shortages also were cited as top disruptors by two-thirds of respondents.

MROs facing inflation, delays, and inventory pressure

Post-pandemic, supply chain challenges continue to plague the industry, with more than half of survey respondents expecting at least another 18 months before these subside (Exhibit 2). For the MRO industry to gain more confidence in the supply chain, two-thirds or more of respondents said they would need to see more consistent supplier performance, better inventory availability, and shorter lead times.

Increases in material costs are not showing signs of abating. In last year’s survey, respondents expected 6.5% material cost inflation this year, but actual increases averaged 7.7%. Despite this, respondents remain hopeful, estimating that material costs will rise by only 6.3% next year. While we agree that costs are coming down, it is unclear if it will happen this fast, given ongoing supply chain constraints.

In terms of repair performance, turnaround times (TATs) appear to have worsened compared to last year. No part of the aircraft has been spared, with 75% of respondents seeing worse TAT performance for engines and auxiliary power units, and half or more for nearly all other categories. Piece part availability is cited as a leading cause for increased TATs, as well as lack of repair capacity and inadequate labor skills.

Although the MRO industry has a range of levers at its disposal to compensate for supply chain performance, the most popular continues to be holding more inventory. Unfortunately, this tactic puts even more stress on the material supply chain and exacerbates piece part shortages. And even when (or if) the supply chain situation normalizes, few expect a large decrease in inventory supply levels (Exhibit 3).

Continuing MRO labor shortages but some productivity gains

Securing labor at competitive rates continues to be a major challenge for the industry. Respondents expect wage inflation next year to be 5.7% overall, and slightly higher for engine labor. Constraints on labor supply are a key driver; for example, the US shortfall of certified mechanics is expected to grow to 19% by 2028. On a more positive note, labor attrition may be leveling off somewhat — 62% of survey respondents said attrition was the same or lower last year compared to the year before.

Given labor constraints, many industry participants are focusing on productivity to ease the strain. More than half of survey respondents said they have seen some improvement in frontline productivity over the past two years. Better training, daily planning and adherence, and communication were cited as the top three drivers of improvement in frontline staff productivity.

The MRO industry is starting to realize value from AI investments

The use of artificial intelligence (AI) is fairly new for the MRO industry, but adoption is growing — from 58% of survey respondents in 2024 to 64% this year. Critically, 58% of respondents now report that their value expectations from AI investments are being met or exceeded — compared to only 20% in the previous year.

In terms of how the aviation maintenance industry is using AI, the overall focus appears to be on cost management and efficiency. MROs and original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) are also applying AI to materials and inventory forecasting and to planning and support functions like finance. Operators are using AI for maintenance programs and planning, reliability, and predictive analytics. Early successes appear to be fueling optimism about AI, with nearly a third of organizations forming dedicated MRO AI teams, and two-thirds anticipating widespread adoption within five years (Exhibit 4).

Our MRO survey offers insight into global aviation industry priorities

Now in its second decade, the annual Oliver Wyman MRO survey is an industry standard that samples the attitudes and strategies of executives from across the aviation industry as they address key trends and emerging issues in the MRO sector. 

This year, more than 170 aviation professionals from around the world took part in the survey. Respondents were drawn from a cross section of airline operators, airline and independent MROs, OEMs, and others. More than half are senior executives (C-suite or vice presidents) and 82% are director level or above. Nearly 70% of respondents’ companies have a primary base of operations outside of North America.