Grocery shopping can be accomplished in minutes – and without having to leave the comfort of home. This is the promise that fast-delivery services such as Gorillas, Flink, and Gopuff have been using to entice urban consumers in Europe since mid-2020. With delivery times of 30 minutes or less, quick commerce (q-commerce) providers are succeeding in taking away sales from stationary food retailers, and rapidly changing how customers shop. However, whether it can replace brick-and-mortar stores for good depends on many variables.   

According to a survey of 2,100 German, French, and Dutch q-commerce users, many customers already do a considerable amount of their weekly shopping by ordering from a quick-delivery service. Fruits and vegetables and dairy products are at the top of the list of products ordered. 

The biggest share (44%) of q-commerce customers in Europe order two to four times a month. The number of heavy users is high. About 8% use the fast delivery service at least five times a month, while around a third of users estimate q-commerce spending accounts for 20%-39% of their total grocery budget.  

Many q-commerce customers have noticeably changed their shopping behavior. Half of those surveyed even have fast-delivery services regularly bring them their entire weekly shopping. This shift has come at the expense of stationary supermarkets or discounters. More than half of q-commerce customers in Germany and the Netherlands say they would resort to brick-and-mortar retailers if fast-delivery services weren't available – while only 20% would turn to alternative e-commerce providers in the food segment, whose models include longer order lead times. Users in France have a different opinion – they slightly prefer e-food providers (34%) over brick-and-mortar retailers (31%). 

Higher costs compared to supermarkets 

Users typically put up with added costs for the convenience of fast-delivery services –but often without suspecting it. The majority of respondents in Germany and France believe q-commerce providers generally charge the same price (60% and 58%, respectively) or even lower prices (17% and 24%, respectively) than stationary retailers. Meanwhile, 30% of Dutch customers think q-commerce prices to be rather expensive. And an analysis of typical shopping carts as part of the study shows the truth behind that sentiment. On average, q-commerce baskets were 17% more expensive than supermarkets on a like-for-like basis. On top of that, there are delivery costs.  

Nonetheless, respondents show a tolerance for the higher prices. For a basket of goods worth €20 delivered within 30 minutes, 45% of users in France consider a surcharge of €2 to be justified, while the Netherlands and Germany were only slightly less, with 44% and 41% willing to pay the €2 surcharge, respectively. The propensity to buy is particularly pronounced in Germany, where the average q-commerce shopping cart is worth just under €31 among those surveyed. In that regard, the average shopping carts in France (approximately €29) and the Netherlands (approximately €27 euros), are lower. Germany, the major location for discounters, with a market share of 40%, is also a quick-commerce country. However, this does not mean higher customer loyalty. Price and delivery speed are the overriding selection criteria for q-commerce users, and they tend to change providers frequently.  

Growth opportunities in q-commerce despite challenges

Oliver Wyman experts estimate the total market for quick commerce in Europe in 2022 at close to €4.5 billion and expect the market to nearly double in the next five years to €8.7 billion in 2027, with the United Kingdom, France, and Germany being the key growth markets. 

One challenge remains the economic viability of the model. The labor-intensive assembly of goods is a hurdle to profitability. Plus, fast delivery requires efficiency. Such productivity is achievable, especially in highly dense inner-city areas. But that limits the model's reach to a narrow portion of the population for the foreseeable future. In rural regions, the viability of quick commerce, for now, is simply not given.  

That said, q-commerce's growth opportunity goes well beyond pure grocery. In the consumer world of tomorrow, an overwhelming majority of German (78%), Dutch (75%), and French (69%) customers see q-commerce as an important channel in the non-food sector as well. 

Moritz Küntzler and Marcel Käferstein contributed to this article.

About the study 

For the study, 2,100 German, French, and Dutch quick-commerce users were surveyed in December 2022 about their shopping behavior and willingness to pay for groceries.