Asset Management in China

China’s economic output has grown ten-fold over the last 20 years. Hundreds of millions of Chinese are now middle income earners and millions are wealthy. The asset management industry has grown along with the economy, but not as fast as might be expected. The bulk of China’s RMB 145 TN of financial assets are held in deposits. Only 3% are held in mutual funds. The Chinese remain savers rather than investors.

Yet, for reasons we explain in this report, this is set to change. We expect assets under management (AuM) to grow from RMB 4 TN today to RMB 24 TN by 2020. This will present a massive opportunity for Chinese fund management companies (FMCs) and, potentially, for foreign asset managers too.

But aggregate growth in AuM is not enough on its own to guarantee profitability for FMCs. Many of the funds that have proliferated in China since recent deregulation are now subscale and unprofitable. Equally foreign players have found it difficult to make forays into the
Chinese market work.

Having described the current dynamics of the Chinese asset management industry and the drivers of growth, we look at the challenges for FMCs seeking to establish a sustainably profitable business model in China.

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Asia Finance 2020

中国国内生产总值在20 年间增长了十倍，国民财富增长带动数亿中国人口达到中产阶级收入标准并催生了数百万的富豪群体。在中国经济发展的同时，国内资产管理市场也逐步兴起和扩张，但是市场扩张速度未达到预期水平。目前中国居民金融资产规模约145 万亿元人民币，其中大部分为银行储蓄资产，公募基金资产仅占3%。时至今日，中国居民依然是储蓄者，而尚未转化为投资者。

上述状况将发生改变，本报告对未来推动中国资产管理市场改变的多方面原因进行了探讨。奥纬预测2020 年中国市场资产管理规模将从目前的4 万亿元人民币上升到24 万亿元，资产管理规模的扩大意味着国内基金管理公司和外资机构可望迎来巨大的商业机遇。

然而，仅仅依靠扩大整体管理资产的规模无法保证基金管理公司的盈利能力。近年来随着中国金融管制放松，国内基金市场百花齐放，但是大部分的基金目前依然处于业务规模不足和无法盈利的状况。同样的，外资机构也认识到进入中国市场并占据一席之地并非易事。

本文首先介绍了中国资产管理行业的现状以及影响未来发展的驱动因素，在此基础上深入分析力争建立可持续的盈利业务模式的基金管理公司所面临的种种挑战。