Oliver Wyman Survey Finds Nearly 60% Of Chinese Consumers Plan To Spend Less On Overseas Shopping In 2025

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Sophie Liu
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Hong Kong, November 13, 2024 – Chinese travelers are experiencing a notable decline in international travel sentiment, with nearly 60% of respondents to a recent Oliver Wyman survey indicating plans to spend less on shopping during overseas trips in 2025.

Imke Wouters, a partner at Oliver Wyman who led the research, said, “Compared to last year’s survey, we haven’t seen a significant rebound in consumer sentiment regarding international leisure travel, especially among affluent households. In fact, our research reveals shifts in travel sentiment, shopping behaviors, and destination preferences, reflecting broader economic uncertainties and evolving consumer priorities.”

Lower international travel sentiment due to weak confidence in financial well-being

The survey indicates a notable decline in international travel sentiment among Chinese consumers, with expectations for spending during overseas trips decreasing. A substantial 57% of respondents expressed intentions to reduce their shopping budgets while traveling internationally in 2025. Additionally, 45% indicated they expect to travel less frequently in the coming year. This shift underscores a cautious approach, reflecting ongoing economic uncertainties and changing levels of consumer confidence.

The decline is partly attributed to consumers’ weak confidence in their future financial well-being. The survey indicates that current consumer sentiment remains at COVID-19 levels, with significant drops in both short-term and long-term expectations compared to two years ago.

Malaysia has emerged as a standout destination among Chinese travelers. The country’s appeal has surged, attributed to its visa-free arrangements effective from December 2023 and competitive travel costs. Malaysia’s diverse cuisine (44%), attractive shopping experiences (33%), and rich cultural tapestry (20%) are key drivers behind its newfound popularity, according to the survey. In contrast, Thailand’s appeal has decreased, potentially due to ongoing safety concerns among Chinese travelers.

In contrast to international travel sentiment, the sentiment for domestic travel within China remains stable. During the 2024 Golden Week, domestic tourism surpassed pre-pandemic levels, driven by an increase in the number of tourists. However, average spending was 2% below the pre-COVID-19 level of 2019.

Cautious luxury spending and the rise of dupe products

The survey reveals a growing prudence among luxury shoppers as they approach 2025. Both core luxury consumers, who spent more than CN¥40,000 in 2024, and casual luxury consumers, who spent less than CN¥40,000 in 2024, are expected to curtail their expenditure on luxury shopping in the coming year. The anticipated reduction in luxury spending is particularly evident among younger consumers, who are increasingly exploring alternative purchasing options.

As luxury shoppers become more budget-conscious, there is a noticeable rise in the popularity of dupe products, particularly in categories such as apparel, beauty, leather goods, and jewelry. This trend is most pronounced among millennials, who are leading the charge in adopting more affordable alternatives to traditional luxury goods.

The shift signals a transformative change in consumer behavior, driven by a blend of economic considerations and changing perceptions of value,” said Wouters.

Hainan facing struggles in duty-free market

Hainan is currently facing significant challenges in maintaining its position in the luxury and duty-free market. Despite a 5% increase in the number of visitors between January and August 2024, duty-free sales plummeted by 31% year-over-year. This decline suggests that visitors are either purchasing less or, as indicated by the survey, opting for alternative shopping destinations.

The survey reveals a weakening perception of the island compared to other destinations, such as Hong Kong SAR and Macau SAR, both of which are popular outbound travel destinations for Chinese travelers. The overall attractiveness of Hainan has dropped to 41% from 55% a year ago, while Macau SAR has seen an increase from 7% to 22%.

“With the island’s appeal waning, it is crucial for Hainan to innovate and refresh its strategies to attract Chinese luxury spenders again. This may involve enhancing the shopping experience, offering competitive pricing, and investing in marketing campaigns that highlight the unique aspects of shopping in Hainan. As the landscape of duty-free shopping evolves, Hainan must adapt quickly to these changes to remain a key player in the luxury market,” said Wouters.

Next year, cautious luxury spending by Chinese shoppers, along with their continually changing shopping preferences, will make it increasingly difficult for luxury brands to determine where to invest in order to grow their share of a more diversified market that is experiencing minimal growth,” added Wouters.

About The Survey​

Oliver Wyman’s research is based on a survey of 3,563 affluent mainland Chinese consumers (those with a minimal monthly household income of CN¥30,000, representing about 5% of China’s total population in 2024) in June 2024 and 3,787 such consumers in October 2024. The research aims to understand how the current economic situation has impacted the appetite of Chinese travelers for international travel, as well as their spending on luxury products.

About Oliver Wyman​

Oliver Wyman, a business of Marsh McLennan (NYSE: MMC), is a management consulting firm combining deep industry knowledge with specialized expertise to help clients optimize their business, improve operations and accelerate performance. Marsh McLennan is a global leader in risk, strategy and people, advising clients in 130 countries across four businesses: Marsh, Guy Carpenter, Mercer and Oliver Wyman. With annual revenue of $23 billion and more than 85,000 colleagues, Marsh McLennan helps build the confidence to thrive through the power of perspective. For more information, visit oliverwyman.com, or follow on LinkedIn and X.